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OPINION OCTOBER 02, 2026 | The Indian Eye 10

Xi–Trump Summit:

The Limits of

Transactional Diplomacy

DR SWATI ARUN Like the last meeting, the optics of the summit may ultimately matter more than the substance (IDSA)

he Trump–Xi summit will test petition has not eased despite these This highlights that the relation- licensing. China wants to keep the
whether transactional diplo- efforts; both nations have continued ship is trying to be transactional but relationship manageable by buying
Tmacy can contain an increas- to use economic leverage, domestic is limited by strategic constraints. enough headline-grabbing commodi-
ingly structural and competitive laws and diplomacy to undercut the While rare earths give China sig- ties, while letting harder negotiations
US–China rivalry. The more conse- other. Therefore, the contention nificant leverage in negotiating the slide. This is the tone of the relation-
quential questions concern Taiwan points—Taiwan, AI, rare earths and terms of the relationship, the US is ship: manage it with non-strategic
and the shifting US military posture chips, trade and a collapsing security not without leverage. But since Bu- purchases to keep the optics positive
in the Indo-Pacific, where conces- order—have deepened since the last san, the bilateral relationship has for both audiences.
sions could have consequences be- meeting. changed little, except for a sharp in- Taiwan will be one of the most
yond the immediate bargain. The trade truce struck in Busan crease in senior meetings and phone crucial talking points. In December
The 24 September 2026 sum- in October 2025 suspended export calls, suggesting both leaders have 2017, Trump’s first National Securi-
mit between Presidents Donald controls on rare earths, which expires concluded the relationship is precari- ty Strategy broke with a half-century
Trump and Xi Jinping will be close- on 10 November 2026. If the truce is ous and dangerous but cannot be left of engagement by naming China a
ly watched for answers on the future not extended or made permanent, unmanaged. ‘revisionist power’ and a ‘challeng-
of international order, technology the US will suffer from a supply Trade talks are likely to yield er to American power’ seeking to
and great-power competition. The shortage, hurting its semiconductor the most visible results. China is ‘shift the regional balance of power
last meeting between the two in May industry. Reportedly, China’s ship- now over halfway to its soybean tar- in its favour’. This historic moment
2026 produced problematic develop- ments of rare earth magnets to the get, politically positive for Trump’s would change the international or-
ments, with the US seemingly capitu- US fell 13 per cent year on year to farmer base, but its non-soybean der forever. Trump, in other words,
lating to Chinese demands for equal- 512 tonnes in August. This followed agricultural pledge of US$ 17 bil- has already once correctly, or at least
ity and parity through ‘constructive Beijing’s resumption of some export lion has largely stalled. This is not an consequentially, enabled a structural
strategic stability’, and attempting approvals after trade negotiations, accidental bureaucratic error; it is a shift in the international order before
to build consensus around negoti- and shipments recovered from their calculated move of selective compli- the rest of the world could under-
ated bipolarity. Great power com- lows in 2025. ance, a pattern visible in rare-earth
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